1 in 31: What Rising Autism Rates Really Mean—and What They Don’t
- armantabesh
- Apr 19
- 4 min read
A new study released by the the CDC’s Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network gave information on the rate of children’s autism levels from research done in 2022. The report stated that the autism spectrum disorder (ASD) affected 32.2 per 1,000 eight‑year‑olds. This equates to approximately one in 31 children. This rate exhibited a 22.2% rise from the one‑in‑36 prevalence seen in a similar study done 2020. ASD remained about 3.4 times more common in boys than girls.The CDC attributed much of this increase to expanded screening, broader diagnostic criteria, and greater awareness of milder ASD cases.
At a press conference responding to the report, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dismissed any genetic contributions to ASD, asserting “genes don’t cause epidemics” and calling autism a “preventable disease” caused by environmental toxins. Kennedy vowed that under his leadership, the health department would focus on looking into certain substances, like mold and food additives, and parental obesity to try to reverse rising rates of autism in children.This stance conflicts with both CDC findings and the scientific consensus that ASD is highly heritable.
Overview of the CDC Study
Rising Prevalence and Trends
Temporal increase: Nine of eleven sites repeating surveillance saw higher prevalence in 2022 versus 2020, even when accounting for consistent site boundaries and data sources CDC.
Demographic Breakdown
Sex: ASD was 3.4 times more prevalent among boys (49.2 per 1,000) than girls (14.3 per 1,000)
Race and ethnicity: Prevalence was lowest among White children (27.7 per 1,000) and higher among Asian/Pacific Islander (38.2), Black (36.6), American Indian/Alaska Native (37.5), Hispanic (33.0), and multiracial children (31.9).
Drivers of the Increase
Expanded screening and awareness: Experts attribute much of the rise to more comprehensive screening, inclusion of milder cases, and heightened public and professional awareness
Other factors: Changes in diagnostic criteria (e.g., DSM‑5’s broader ASD definition), increased access to services, and demographic shifts such as older parental age also contribute to higher reported rates
RFK Jr.’s Reasoning
Preventable disease: Secretary Kennedy labeled autism a “preventable disease” caused by “environmental exposures,” rejecting the role of genes in driving what he termed an “epidemic” AP News.
Genes vs. environment: He declared, “Genes do not cause epidemics,” insisting that only toxins in air, water, food, mold, medicines, or parental factors like obesity could explain the increase
Vaccines: While wisely not attributing the rising ASD in his press conference, Kennedy has been known to be a vaccine sceptic in the past and has said that vaccines can cause autism.
Proposed Research Focus
Getting to the bottom of this: Kennedy vowed to commission federal grants targeting mold, food additives, environmental chemicals, and parental obesity. Kennedy set his deadline to September to uncover “some” of the answers for this rising ASD rate. At the same time, we’ve seen hundreds of grants and research projects cancelled and thousands of government health workers fired.
Study timeline and leadership: He set an ambitious—critics say unrealistic—deadline of September to identify the “cause” of ASD and tapped a known vaccine skeptic to oversee aspects of the effort
Evaluating His Claims
Genetic vs. Environmental Contributions
High heritability: Several recent twin studies estimate that up to 80% of ASD risk is genetic. Monozygotic (MZ) twins (who share ~100% of their genes) show much higher concordance for ASD than dizygotic (DZ) twins (who share ~50%), showing inheritance is the main driver of ASD.
Addressing environmental factors: When some studies model ASD as extremely rare(like a 1% prevalence rate) to make sense of a high number of concordant DZ pairs, the model attributes this largely to an environmental component. In other words, if you assume only one percent of people have autism, having two affected DZ twins becomes less likely under pure genetics—so the model considers a shared environmental factor to explain why both DZ members are affected.
Can you develop autism later in life? There is no evidence to suggest such claims. Autism develops around the second trimester so exposure to vaccines or any postanal food and environmental chemicals aren’t the reason for autism.
Still some cases of environmental factors: Autism cases linked to prenatal environmental factors are possible but much more rare than the hereditary route.
Screening and Diagnostic Changes
Awareness-driven rise: The CDC article explained this apparent surge in ASD prevalence has come from increased screening, broader criteria, and improved access to evaluation. “The more you look for it, the more you find,” said Dr. Maureen Durkin, one of the authors of the C.D.C. report.
Critiques
Autism ‘destroys’ lives: Kennedy’s remarks sparked some outrage from the autistic community. They say that Kennedy has perpetuated a harmful stigma around autism. Many have spoken out against Kennedy’s remarks saying they have done all the things that Kennedy claimed were impossible for autistic people. Autism is not ‘preventable’ like Kennedy says so it doesn’t make sense to dismiss their lives like lost causes.
Resource allocation: Critics and specialists argue that funds would be better spent allocating resources for early autism detection and treatment, since early diagnoses has been shown to yield the most positive outcomes for the child.
Summary:
Autism rates are rising, but context matters: A new CDC study displays data showing a noticeable increase in ASD prevalence, now affecting 1 in 31 children. However, experts attribute this to improved screening, broader diagnostic criteria, and greater awareness
Genetics remain the dominant factor: Decades of research have consistently shown that autism is highly heritable. Genetic factors account for roughly 80% of ASD risk.
Environmental factors exist—but are limited: While certain prenatal exposures may contribute to some cases, there is no evidence that food additives or vaccines play any role in autism rates
Policy priorities should reflect science: Rather than chasing unproven theories, experts urge investment in early detection and stronger support systems—not as an epidemic to be eradicated.
Sources:
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